Supply gap could mean oil hits $200 a barrel

Just in case you thought the recent fall in the oil price was a new trend....

Only a collapse in the global demand for oil can save economies from a supply crisis and crude prices reaching more than $200 a barrel, according to a report out today.

Energy expert Paul Stevens says that governments and companies are investing too little to meet future needs and a "supply crunch" will hit within "five to 10 years."

His report, for the Chatham House think tank, dispels hopes that the recent 20pc fall in the oil price from its $147.27 peak might herald a return to more manageable levels. "A spike of over $200 is possible," Mr Stevens concludes.

(Full article in the Telegraph)

And remember that "a collapse in global demand for oil" is not going to happen because we've moved to renewable energy, it's going to happen because there's a global recession.

Check out these sites for more info:
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/
http://www.theoildrum.com/

Mike

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Oil price up over 100% in last year

May 7th 2007 - oil closed at $61.47
May 7th 2008 - oil closed at $123.53

That's an increase of almost 101%.

In sterling, the price a year ago was £30.86, yesterday it was £62.63, a rise of almost 103%.
Expect to see rising petrol and diesel prices continue indefinitely...

If you've not heard of peak oil before, visit PowerSwitch UK

Mike

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News round-up: oil, rice and clothes

Sorry if you're here looking for stuff about our wood - I promise there'll be a post over the weekend, after we've been up there...

In the meantime...

The strike at Grangemouth refinery is all set for next week now, the talks broke down last night, as reported by the BBC. What amazes me is how it is not front page news - you have to dig down a bit to find it. I get the distinct feeling the media is under instructions/pressure to keep things quiet! Anyway, what certainly hasn't been reported in the UK media is the wider impact on oil supply: the Forties pipeline brings 700,000 barrels of oil a day (a little under 1% of global supply) in from the North Sea, and it needs services from Grangemouth to keep running. The same applies to a gas pipeline too. So when Grangemouth shuts, it's not just the 200,000 barrels a day it processes that is missing - it's much more! Full details on the expected closure of the Forties pipeline here. If you want more technical background, you can find it at TOD.

And in the world of food, rice prices hit another all-time high yesterday, and Wal-Mart has started rationing customers to four bags per visit after people started rushing to stock up. UPDATE: Happening in the UK too, apparently.

Finally, the price rises we've seen in food over the last year or two are now spreading into clothes, due to high cotton prices: The end of cheap clothes is near.

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Shed nearing completion, and another oil record

We went down to the allotment again after dinner today, and got to work putting the roofing felt on:
Yes, I know I look a bit precarious up there, but Tracy was steadying the ladder apart from when she too the photo!
OK, it's a bit wonky, but it's an old shed and we had no instructions! It should stand up to the wind and rain I think.

We almost managed to finish the roof, just one row of tiles and then the strip along the top. The only job left after that is the doors, and a few repairs to the edges of the windows...

Meanwhile, in the energy world, oil hit another new record price, $119.90, before settling at $119.37 at close of business. Probably see $120 tomorrow, unless something changes dramatically, in which case we'll still probably see $120 by the end of the month.

Mike

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Progress on the shed, and another oil record

Another day, another oil price record ($117.76 peak, $117.48 settle) - at least that's what seems to be happening this April. BBC reporting on it here. Why? Because we've on the plateau, production can't go higher, but demand is there. Just think how much fuel's going to cost when we hit the decline!

Anyway, that's what's going on the big wide world. In our little world in Rye, the shed is making progress, as part of our preparations for a post-peak-oil world...

We went down early evening, before dinner, and set about fitting the roof. this thrush was very interested, and watched us from a nearby shed, singing his little heart out. Tracy was able to get very close for a picture - I guess the birds are quite tame around the allotment, bring used to seeing people working

As the shed is old and somewhat warped, and rotten in places, things didn't quite fit together like new, and a little trimming was required...But before too long it was coming together:
The next step is to put the felt onto the roof, which will cover the gap you can see in the above picture.

We're hoping to get the shed finished in the evenings this week, so on Saturday we can get up to the wood and make some more progress on brash burning, log stacking and making piles of dead wood to leave for wildlife.

Mike

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Oil hits inflation-adjusted record high

From Reuters:

U.S. oil surged to a new inflation-adjusted record high on Thursday, surpassing the previous record of $102.53 set in 1980, according to the International Energy Agency.

Full story here

and the reason behind it all (and why we own a wood!).


Mike

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